Old-time Yankees pitcher Lefty Gomez often remarked about his prowess, “I’d rather be lucky than good.” It’s a quote that sticks with me very much when playing DFS, as sometimes your success comes purely from an opportune turn of events. The most prevalent situation for this in soccer is when your punt play scores an unexpected goal.
Punt plays, at their core, are selections made for salary relief in order to pay up at other positions. You’re hoping that the combination ends up with a higher point total than selecting two mid-priced players in a more balanced lineup construction. While you’re still looking at cheap defenders or holding midfielders (positions typically having little upside on DraftKings) with the highest potential in their specific matchup, the expectation is always simply just a small handful of peripheral points. Anything more is a luxury. Anything more is fortuity. Even though you’re obviously looking to put yourself in the best opportunity for that luck to hit when punting (ie. the cheap DM on a heavy favorite with a high goal total), fluke goals by these players are nearly impossible to predict or hinge on for consistent profit – unless you’re clairvoyant.
This is important because being aware when your success or failure is due to luck versus skill is key when analyzing your DFS results. While it’s quite likely a big GPP win can be chalked up to having one of these low-owned punts coming through for you in an already solid lineup, it shouldn’t be the predominant way you’re showing a profit. If you take out these types of results, are you still seeing a positive return on investment? Skilled players should, and if you’re not, then maybe you need to reassess your play and process for long-term sustainability.
We’d all rather be lucky than good, but the former we can’t control, while the latter we most definitely can. Focus on that. Onto this week’s questions!